To improve the accuracy of large-scale strategic transport models in congested conditions, this paper presents a straightforward extension of a static capacity-constrained traffic assignment model into a semi-dynamic version. The semi-dynamic model is more accurate than its static counterpart as it relaxes the empty network assumption, but, unlike its dynamic counterpart, maintains the stability and scalability properties required for application in large-scale strategic transport model systems. Applications show that, contrary to static models, semi-dynamic queue sizes and delays are very similar to dynamic outcomes, whereas only the congestion patterns differ due to the omission of spillback. The static and semi-dynamic models are able to reach user equilibrium conditions, whereas the dynamic model cannot. On a real-world transport model, the static model omits up to 76% of collective losses. It is therefore very likely that the empty network assumption influences (policy) decisions based on static model outcomes.

This paper presents an efficient solution method for the matrix estimation problem using a static capacity constrained traffic assignment (SCCTA) model with residual queues. The solution method allows for inclusion of route queuing delays and congestion patterns besides the traditional link flows and prior demand matrix whilst the tractability of the SCCTA model avoids the need for tedious tuning of application specific algorithmic parameters. The proposed solution method solves a series of simplified optimization problems, thereby avoiding costly additional assignment model runs. Link state constraints are used to prevent usage of approximations outside their valid range as well as to include observed congestion patterns. The proposed solution method is designed to be fast, scalable, robust, tractable and reliable because conditions under which a solution to the simplified optimization problem exist are known and because the problem is convex and has a smooth objective function. Four test case applications on the small Sioux Falls model are presented, each consisting of 100 runs with varied input for robustness. The applications demonstrate the added value of inclusion of observed congestion patterns and route queuing delays within the solution method. In addition, application on the large scale BBMB model demonstrates that the proposed solution method is indeed scalable to large scale applications and clearly outperforms the method mostly used in current practice.

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.