Objectives To develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication-related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Design, setting, participants Multicentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015. Primary outcome measure Participants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non-adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: Hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated. Results 1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow-up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases (â 'possible' and 'aprobable') were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced 'definite' MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: Age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool's discrimination C-statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches. Conclusions The PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool's evaluation in other settings.

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AIMS:

Polypharmacy is increasingly common in older adults, placing them at risk of medication-related harm (MRH). Patients are particularly vulnerable to problems with their medications in the period following hospital discharge due to medication changes, and poor information transfer between hospital and primary care. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, severity, preventability and cost of medication-related harm (MRH) in older adults in England post-discharge.

METHODS:

An observational multicentre prospective cohort study recruited 1280 older adults (median age 82 years) from five teaching hospitals in Southern England, UK. Participants were followed up for eight weeks by senior pharmacists, using 3 data sources (hospital readmission review, participant telephone interview and primary care records), to identify MRH and associated health service utilisation.

RESULTS:

Four hundred and thirteen participants (37%) experienced MRH (556 MRH events per 1000 discharges). Three hundred and thirty-six (81%) cases were serious, and 214 (52%) potentially preventable. Four participants experienced fatal MRH. The most common MRH events were gastrointestinal (n=158, 25%) and neurological (n=111, 18%). Medicine classes associated with the highest risk of MRH were opiates, antibiotics, and benzodiazepines. Three hundred and twenty-eight (79%) participants with MRH sought healthcare over the eight-week follow-up. The incidence of MRH associated hospital readmission was 78 per 1000 discharges. Post-discharge MRH in older adults is estimated to cost the National Health Service £396 million annually, of which £243 million is potentially preventable.

CONCLUSIONS:

MRH is common in older adults following hospital discharge, and results in substantial use of healthcare resources.
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Aims: Medication-related harm (MRH) is common in older adults following hospital discharge. In resource-limited health systems, interventions to reduce this risk can be targeted at high-risk patients. This study aims to determine whether (1) doctors can predict which older patients will experience MRH requiring healthcare following hospital discharge, (2) clinical experience and confidence in prediction influence the accuracy of the prediction. Methods: This was a multicentre observational prospective study involving five teaching hospitals in England between September 2013 and November 2015. Doctors discharging patients (aged ≥65 years) from medical wards predicted the likelihood of their patient experiencing MRH requiring healthcare (hospital readmission or community healthcare) in the initial 8-week period post-discharge. Patients were followed up by senior pharmacists to determine MRH occurrence. Results: Data of 1066 patients (83%) with completed predictions and follow-up, out of 1280 recruited patients, were analysed. Patients had a median age of 82 years (65-103 years), and 58% were female. Most predictions (85%) were made by junior doctors with less than 5 years' clinical experience. There was no relationship between doctors' predictions and patient MRH (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.82-1.46, P = 0.53), irrespective of years of clinical experience. Doctors' predictions were more likely to be accurate when they reported higher confidence in their prediction, especially in predicting MRH-associated hospital readmissions (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42-1.76, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Clinical judgement of doctors is not a reliable tool to predict MRH in older adults post-discharge.

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Background: Medication related harm (MRH) is a common cause of morbidity and hospital admission in the elderly, and has significant cost implications for both primary and secondary healthcare resources. The development of risk prediction models has become an increasingly common phenomenon in medicine and can be useful to guide objective clinical decision making, resource allocation and intervention. There are no risk prediction models that are widely used in clinical practice to identify elderly patients at high risk of MRH following hospital
discharge. The aim of this study is to develop a risk prediction model (RPM) to identify elderly patients at high risk of MRH upon discharge from hospital, and to compare this with routine clinical judgment.

Methods/Design: This is a multi-centre, prospective observational study following a cohort of patients for 8 weeks after hospital discharge. Data collection including patient characteristics, medication use, social factors and frailty will take place prior to patient discharge and then the patient will be followed up in the community over the next 8 weeks to determine if they have experienced MRH. Research pharmacists will determine whether patients have
experienced MRH by prospectively reviewing records for unplanned emergency department attendance, hospital readmission and GP consultation related to MRH. Research pharmacists will also telephone patients directly to
determine self-reported MRH, which patients may not have sought further medical attention for. The data collected will inform the development of a RPM which will be externally validated in a follow-up study.

Discussion: There are no RPMs that are used in clinical practice to help stratify elderly patients at high risk of MRH in the community following hospital discharge, despite this being a significant public health problem. This study plans to develop a clinically useful RPM that is better than routine clinical judgment. As this is a multi-centre study
involving clinical settings that serve elderly people of heterogeneous sociodemographic background, it is anticipated that this RPM will be generalizable.@en