Flood drivers and trends

Abstract

In July 2021, extreme precipitation caused devastating flooding in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, particularly in the Geul River catchment. Such precipitation extremes had not been previously recorded and were not expected to occur in summer. This contributed to poor flood forecasting and, hence, extensive damage. Climate change was mentioned as a potential explanation for these unprecedented events. However, before such a statement can be made, we need a better understanding of the drivers of floods in the Geul and their long-term variability, which are poorly understood and have not been recently examined. In this paper, we use an event-based approach to identify the dominant flood drivers in the Geul. We also employ (1) a multi-temporal trend analysis to investigate their temporal variability and (2) a novel methodology to detect the dominant direction of any trend. Results suggest that extreme 24 h precipitation alone is typically insufficient to cause floods. The joint probability of extreme and prolonged rainfall combined with wet initial conditions (compound event) determines the chances of flooding. Flood-producing precipitation shows a consistent increase in the winter half-year, a period in which more than 70 % of extremely high flows have historically occurred. While no consistent trend patterns are evident in the majority of precipitation and extreme flow trends in the summer half-year, an increasing direction is visible in the recent past.