Impacts of large scale climate modes on the current and future bimodal wave climate of a semi-protected shallow gulf

Abstract

The bimodal wave climate of the semi-protected shallow Gulf St Vincent in South Australia has been analyzed through a forty-year (1980-2020) wave hindcast and an investigation into the climatic drivers of wave climate anomalies is presented. The sea and swell partitions of the wave climate were modelled independently as well as using an integrated model with both partitions represented. The wave hindcast was validated against two wave buoys located off the coast of Adelaide’s metropolitan beaches and key wave parameter anomalies were calculated across the gulf. Teleconnections were investigated, and the Southern Annular Mode is found to have the strongest correlations to wave parameter anomalies while the Southern Oscillation Index and the Dipole Mode Index fluctuations are found to correlate seasonally with wave parameter anomalies. Projected future trends of these climate drivers from literature have been related to the teleconnections found in this study to inform future trends of bimodal wave conditions in the gulf. The Southern Annular Mode is projected to trend positive which will reduce wave height and the westerly component of waves in the gulf, while the Southern Oscillation Index is projected to become more variable in the future which will lead to more extreme winter and spring wave conditions. An understanding of these trends allows coastal managers to pre-emptively manage the impacts of waves on the coastline at a seasonal to annual basis and provides insight into future wave conditions beyond these time periods.