Observed and projected declines in glacier albedo across the Third Pole in the 21^st century

Abstract

Glaciers are crucial water resources in the Third Pole (the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings) and are shrinking in response to climate change. Glacier albedo is an expression of glacier interactions with climate and dust/black carbon, and albedo reduction enhances glacier mass loss, but its changes and potential drivers remain poorly quantified. We leverage satellite observations to explore the variability of glacier albedo and understand its sensitivity to potential drivers and its future evolution. We find that glacier albedo has declined during 2001–2020, but high interannual variability is also an important signal. These variations are highly sensitive to air temperature and snow conditions and to nearby dust/black carbon emission sources. Future changes to these drivers will lead to further decreases of 2.9%–12.5% in glacier albedo by 2100 under different warming scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of albedo in glacier future evolution and the urgency of action to mitigate climate warming.