The climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi)

Abstract

We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the climatological renewable energy deviation index (credi) as the cumulative anomaly of a renewable resource with respect to its climate over a specific time period of interest. For this we introduce the smooth, yet physical, hourly rolling window climatology that captures the expected hourly to yearly behaviour of renewable resources. We analyse the presented index at decadal, annual and (sub-)seasonal timescales for a sample region and discuss scientific and practical implications. credi is meant as an analytical tool for researchers and stakeholders to help them quantify, understand, and explain, the impact of energy-meteorological variability on future energy system. Improved understanding translates to better assessments of how renewable resources, and the associated risks for energy security, may fare in current and future climatological settings. The practical use of the index is in resource planning. For example transmission system operators may be able to adjust short-term planning to reduce adequacy issues before they occur or combine the index with storyline event selection for improved assessments of climate change related risks.