Impact of high-end sea level rise scenarios on storm surge barriers in the Netherlands

Abstract

The Netherlands is a low-lying delta and therefore prone to flooding. After the flood in 1953, the Delta Committee was established which commenced the Delta Works to enhance water safety for the society and economy. The Maeslant Barrier and Eastern Scheldt Barrier are the largest and most technologically advanced flood defences which are part of the Delta Works. These storm surge barriers shorten the effective coastline to reduce the risk of flooding within the Rhine-Meuse Delta and the Eastern Scheldt. However, the climate is changing and the risk of accelerated sea level rise increases. The problem is that the current storm surge barriers are not designed to withstand significant sea level rise. Sea level rise influences the hydraulic loads on the barriers which consequently increase the failure probability of these flood defences. International research argues that future sea level rise is much more uncertain than previously thought because of the instability of the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Therefore, it is critical to identify the degree of uncertainty of climate change and sea level rise to develop effective strategies for the storm surge barriers. This study uses a risk analysis to analyze the critical risk factors which could affect the performance and remaining lifespan of the Maeslant Barrier and the Eastern Scheldt Barrier. When sea level rise exceeds the tipping point of the storm surge barrier, the barrier fails to deliver sufficient water safety and adjustments are required to comply with the strategies of the Delta Programme. Therefore, this research has developed feasible and affordable solutions to increase the performance and remaining technical lifetime in case of accelerated sea level rise.