ASMITA modelling of the Wadden Sea with focus on the Groningerwad

Abstract

Some of the sediment which is eroded from the Dutch coast ends up in the Wadden Sea. Because of this the morphological development of the Wadden Sea is important, not only for the Wadden Sea itself but also for the maintenance programs of the adjacent coastlines. This is one of the reasons that the morphological development of the Wadden Sea is extensively studied. Some of these studies use the ASMITA model to make predictions of the morphological development with accelerating sea level rise. The Groningerwad is a part of the Wadden Sea consisting of a number of smaller tidal basins which has not been modelled with ASMITA. It has not yet been necessary to structurally nourish the coastlines surrounding the Groningerwad. However, as sea level rise increases it might well be possible that the coastal profiles surrounding the Groningerwad require nourishment. Therefore this thesis aims to study the Groningerwad with ASMITA to make a prediction of how the area will develop with accelerating sea level rise. To do this a morphological study is performed to determine the current morphological developments. This morphological study, based on available literature and bathymetry measurements of the area, finds that the Groningerwad is a highly dynamic area. It also determined the area and characterizing volume of each of the tidal basins, which have been used to set up the ASMITA model. For each basin in the Groningerwad an ASMITA model is set up using the information from the morphological study. The ASMITA model is used to make predictions for the development of the intertidal, channel and delta volumes of each of the Groningerwad its basins. The required parameters for the model have been derived from relevant formulas and the assumption that the Groningerwad is currently in a morphodynamic equilibrium. This was done because the time period for which bathymetrical measurements are available are to short to allow for a proper calibration procedure for these parameters. With this setup the ASMITA models show that all basins will lose intertidal sediment volume with rising sea levels. The larger basins of the Groningerwad also will not reach a new dynamic equilibrium state with large levels of sea level rise rate increase. When comparing these results to other basins in the Wadden Sea, it appears that the basins in the Groningerwad respond a lot slower than other Wadden Sea basins. Given the difference between the Groningerwad and the Wadden Sea and the fact that the time period over which bathymetrical data is available was to short to fully calibrate the model the recommendation is made to revisit this study when more data is available and it is possible to calibrate the relevant parameters.