A tour-based multimodal mode choice model for impact assessment of new mobility concepts and mobility as a service

Abstract

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and new mobility concepts mutually inspire each other, provide alternatives for the private car-oriented transport system as we know it, and will offer more mobility choices in a single journey than ever. This multitude of mobility choices however poses challenges in modeling the travelers’ mode choices in travel demand prediction models. To address these challenges, this paper develops a multimodal tour-based mode choice model as part of an activity-based demand model. By explicitly modeling access and egress modes, this choice model creates multimodal mode chain sets on a tour level based on restrictions with respect to personal vehicle ownership, MaaS subscription ownership and vehicle states, and subsequently makes mode choices for every traveler. For the creation of these mode chain sets, we introduce the concept of mode categorization. Seven mode categories are proposed, which include both private and shared mobility concepts. This categorization makes sure that modes are mutually sufficiently different in nature, so that reasonably unbiased mode chain choices can be made. Furthermore, the reduction to seven categories enables the study of large scenarios, while the introduced categories still represent new and already existing modes well. The potential of the model is illustrated by simulating travel demand in the Metropolitan region Rotterdam-The Hague. The results show that our model is capable of making plausible mode choices in the presence of MaaS and new mobility concepts, and can be used to assess the impact of mobility hubs where access and egress mode choice is important.