Flood mitigation through optimal operation of a multi-reservoir system by using model predictive control

Abstract

Managing a multi-reservoir system is complicated, due to conflicting interests among various objectives. This study proposes an optimization-based approach for the operations of a multi-reservoir system. An advanced real-time control technique, Model Predictive Control (MPC), is adopted to control a multi-reservoir system with two control objectives, i.e., flood mitigation and water conservation. The case study area is the Sittaung River basin in Myanmar, where the current reservoir operating rule needs to be improved for a more effective operation. A comparison between an MPC-based operation and the current operation is presented by using performance indicators. The result shows a reduction of the system's vulnerability by 0.9 percent using MPC. Due to the physical constraint of the reservoirs, it is impossible to completely eliminate the flood risk at Taungoo City during high inflow events. However, the results indicate that the potential flood risk can be mitigated by improving the current operating rule.