Develop a demand-oriented train service plan by using the railway passenger demand pattern

Abstract

To develop a demand-oriented train service plan, the railway passenger demand characteristics are needed to be analyzed first. The analysis mainly starts with the volume and structure of the demand, and based on these characteristics, periods that have similar characteristics are classified into the same pattern. Thus a period of time, for example, a week, can be divided into several periods with different demand patterns. One period is considered as the base demand period among all those periods, and the demand contained in this period is always present during the week, its fluctuations are small and occupy the vast majority of the time except for the peak period.

Unlike the existing method that the train service is designed according to the peak hour demand, the train plan will first be designed based on the base demand. This base service will exist all through the period (e.g. in one week) and provide service for all base demand services. The service adaption will be made and added to the base service for all other periods. According to the different demand patterns, those adaptions can be add-on or subtracted services. Those adaptions can adjust the service to match the changed demand over time.