Protective Resource Allocation on Critical Road Segments

Abstract

The Sahel region has become a focal point of concern due to the alarming escalation of terrorism, culminating in devastating attacks that have claimed numerous lives and disrupted regional stability. Mali, in particular, has experienced a significant surge in terrorist activity. This thesis presents a novel approach of using criticality measures based on network science as pay-offs for a game theoretical model in order to protect connectivity of road networks in conflict areas. Through two comprehensive literature reviews the network scan approach, based on shortest paths, population sizes, travel distances, and travel times and the two-player zero-sum game structure were selected as the basis for the methodology. In order to enhance understanding of dynamics on the road network, semi-structured expert interviews were conducted. The model is applied to the region of Segou in Mali and optimal strategies were compared to empirical terrorist attack data of the ACLED database. It is concluded that road network protection can be strengthened to minimize the impact of terrorist attacks through the allocation of protective resources. Firstly, experts highlight the positive impact of combining military patrols and convoys with explosive ordnance disposal on road safety. Secondly, results revealed the network scan approach's potential as a valuable tool for criticality assessment. Thirdly, contexts lacking empirical traffic data, directing network protection efforts towards roads identified as optimal strategies by the model becomes prudent. Lastly, the comparison of optimal strategies against emperical data provides the means enhance insurgent behaviour's understanding. While the developed model can be considered rudimentary, it is believed to have laid down essential foundational principles. Further research is recommended the extend the model further, including validate the model's effectiveness and determine its applicability to different types of attacks and different insurgency groups. This thesis hopes to have made a contribution to the academic fields encompassing counter-terrorism, network science, and game theory within conflict settings.