Pathways for Climate-Adaptive Haven-Stad

Abstract

Due to population growth, a growing housing shortage, and a space shortage, it is expected that new urban developments in the Netherlands will mainly take place inside existing city boundaries and in high densities. At the same time, it is projected that the effects of climate change will increase, as climate change is expected to intensify. These two trends cause an increased climate risk for the liveability in these new urban areas. Climate adaptation is essential to reduce this risk. Climate adaptation planning is crucial to ensure the development of sustainable urban areas with high liveability standards for future and far-future inhabitants. However, traditional spatial design and -planning practice does not match with the climate adaptation task. If no climate adaptation action is taken now by spatial actors, the problems could be passed on to future generations. Hence, there is a need for a different way of working. A paradigm shift towards adaptive planning is needed to plan for climate adaptation and adaptive pathways are promising approaches to support this.

The objective of this research is to contribute to the search for new approaches that support climate adaptation planning. This research aims to investigate the usability of the Spatial Adaptive Policy Pathways (SAPP) approach for climate adaptation planning in new urban areas in the Netherlands. This research explores this approach to define the possibilities and points for improvement, through four main stages: analysis, identification, development, and application. To test the approach, Haven-Stad in Amsterdam has been selected as a case study area. The evaluation of the outputs and approach provide input to answer the main research question of this thesis: How can the Spatial Adaptive Policy Pathways approach support climate adaptation planning for new urban areas in the Netherlands?

The research has shown that the Spatial Adaptive Policy Pathways (SAPP) can support climate adaptation planning for new urban areas in the Netherlands. The SAPP approach brings forward a paradigm in which uncertainty is embraced and adaptivity is central. SAPPs do not show which trajectory is best to follow, but can address certain options, decision points, and consequences. In addition, it can bring different actors together through spatial- and governance elaborations. Thereby, SAPPs can form a basis for a broad dialogue about the future of an area in the short-term and long-term. It supports the development of adaptive designs and can address potential future governance challenges. The SAPP approach could thus be a promising approach to apply in practice. However, it would have to be further developed first.

Further development of the approach requires more testing at different case study locations and testing in practice. More research needs to be done on the applicability of the approach at different scales and the potential integration of scales and climate stresses.