Energy planning in the Eastern Nile Basin countries: the role of floating solar photovoltaics on hydropower reservoirs

Abstract

The Eastern Nile Basin is a highly populated region dealing with inadequate energy systems and water scarcity issues. Moreover, its population is expected to increase in the following decades, leading to even higher electricity and water demands.
In order to sustainably meet this demands and guarantee access to electricity and water for all, new technologies and careful energy planning can play an important role.
In this context, floating solar power is a relatively new technology with promising advantages, such as the synergies between solar and hydropower resources, the exploitation of already existing infrastructures, and the reduction of evaporation rates and land use. These become even more relevant if seen in the context of the Eastern Nile Basin countries, where the need for efficient energy sources and solutions to the water scarcity issues are vital.

In this work, the role of floating solar power in the sustainable fulfillment of the increasing energy demand of the region is explored. The novelty of this study consist in the introduction of floating solar power in a long term regional energy system cost-optimization model (OSeMOSYS-TEMBA) at a single plant resolution. To do so, the single hydropower plants are also explicitly modelled, allowing both the spatial disaggregation of floating solar power plants and the connectivity between the countries via the Nile river. The regional approach is further enhanced by the presence of electricity trade links between countries, which connect the energy systems of the single countries directly.
Finally, the role of floating solar power on the energy system's footprints is evaluated in terms of CO2 emissions, land use and water savings. To this extent, a new methodology for land use accounting and pricing is proposed, and findings from previous studies are brought together to assess the evaporation reduction rates caused by the floating solar power plants.
This extended modelling framework is then used to analyse different scenarios, exploring hydrological regimes under different climate change projections and policy decisions such as the introduction of taxes for carbon emissions and land use change.

The results show that floating solar photovoltaics are a cost-optimal technology since early stages in the modelling horizon, and their full assumed potential is developed under every scenario. Their role in satisfying the energy demand of the whole region reaches 3\% of the generation mix in the reference scenario, but it increases to 4.3\% with the introduction of taxes on carbon emissions and land use. Moreover, the introduction of such policies cause an anticipation of floating solar power's capacity expansion. On the other hand, the tested climate change projections do not affect the results relevantly.
The sensitivity analyses, however, prove that the obtained results are very sensitive to the assumptions behind capacity constraints and costs of these technologies, which need more dedicated research.
As far as the energy system's footprints are concerned, the results show that the implementation of floating solar power can help reduce the total emissions and land use slightly, and cause evaporation reduction rates up to 376 million m\textsuperscript{3}/y (approximately 2\% of the total evaporation from hydropower reservoirs).
The optimal locations to invest in this technology are identified to be the largest hydropower plants in the system (Lake Nasser, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Merowe reservoir), but the reason of this choice relies in the very large size of these plants, which emerge for highest
FPV capacity deployment and water evaporation savings at the large scales considered.
Future research is still needed to reduce the uncertainty behind the key parameters (costs, capacity constraints), improve the representation of hydropower production, improve the evaporation assessments and investigate the effects of implementing floating solar power at smaller spatial and temporal scales.