Uncertainty quantification for solar sails in the near-Earth environment

Abstract

This paper addresses the significance of uncertainty quantification in solar-sail missions, focusing on the uncertainties associated with the sail’s optical coefficients, structural deformation, and attitude profiles for missions in the Earth environment. Due to the relatively low technological maturity of solar-sailing systems, understanding and quantifying uncertainties is crucial for mission success and reliability. This paper employs the Gauss von Mises method for uncertainty propagation and stochastic integration of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, which proved to be robust methodologies for quantifying and modelling uncertainties. The results show a significant impact of uncertainties in the optical coefficients on mission performance, exemplified by a 3-σ uncertainty of 7.5% on the increase in semi-major axis achieved during orbit raising maneuvers using the coefficient uncertainties of the NEA Scout mission. As another example, the analysis on attitude uncertainty demonstrates a 3% lower mean performance in terms of altitude gain compared to ideal control profiles. The research furthermore underscores the effectiveness of the Gauss von Mises method, offering great computational efficiency compared to Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the necessity of considering uncertainty in solar-sail missions and provide valuable insights for improved mission planning, risk assessment, and decision-making.