Quantification of the risk reduction potential of autonomous navigation

Conference paper (2022)

Authors

J. de Vos Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
J.F.J. Pruyn Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
R.G. Hekkenberg Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
Research Group
Ship Design, Production and Operations (Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 J. de Vos, J.F.J. Pruyn, R.G. Hekkenberg
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5957/IMDC-2022-218
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

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Faculty

Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

Department

Marine and Transport Technology

Research Group

Ship Design, Production and Operations

Abstract

Autonomous ships have become a topic of interest for an increasing number of researchers over the last few years. Most of the research that is being performed focuses on autonomous navigation. An important driver for this research is the belief that autonomous navigation will increase safety at sea. In order to evaluate the possible safety benefit of autonomous navigation, it is essential to have an understanding of the risk associated with navigation-related accidents. In this paper, a monetary quantification of the risk associated with navigation-related accidents will be presented, to support designers in determining the acceptable costs of an autonomous navigation system.. It is the intention to provide order-of-magnitude figures for the annual risk for different ship types and sizes. Although it is acknowledged that the analysis comes with uncertainties, the results provide an overview contribution that different damage cases make to the overall risk per year, associated with navigation-related accidents. It is found that the annual risk can be expected to be between €1.5 billion and €2.5 billion, or a €45k to €75k risk per vessel per year. Consequently, the maximum annual safety benefit of autonomous navigation is equal to this figure if autonomous navigation will be able to prevent all navigation-related accidents.

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