An optimisation approach for planning preventive drought management measures

Abstract

While drought impacts are widespread across the globe, climate change projections indicate more frequent and severe droughts. This underscores the pressing need to increase resistance and resilience to drought. The strategic application of Preventive Drought Management Measures (PDMMs) is a suitable avenue to reduce the likelihood of drought and ameliorate associated damages. In this study, we use an optimisation approach with a multicriteria decision-making method to allocate PDMMs for reducing the severity of agricultural and hydrological droughts. The results indicate that implementing PDMMs can reduce the severity of agricultural and hydrological droughts, and the obtained management scenarios (solutions) highlight the utility of multi-objective optimisation for PDMMs planning. However, examined management scenarios also illustrate the trade-off between managing agricultural and hydrological droughts. PDMMs can alleviate the severity of agricultural droughts while producing opposite effects for hydrological droughts (or vice versa). Furthermore, the impact of PDMMs displays temporal and spatial variabilities. For instance, PDMMs implementation within a specific subbasin may mitigate the severity of one type of drought in a given month yet exacerbate drought conditions in preceding or subsequent months. In the case of hydrological droughts, the PDMMs may intensify streamflow deficits in the intervened subbasins while alleviating the hydrological drought severity downstream (or vice versa). These complexities emphasise a customised implementation of PDMMs, considering the basin characteristics (e.g., rainfall distribution over the year, soil properties, land use, and topography) and the quantification of PDMMs' effect on the severity of each type of drought.