PORT METATRENDS

Abstract

This report presents a new three step approach for developing a shared vision on the future development of the port of Rotterdam. The first step concerns a novel three layered framework for analysing future developments. In this step relevant trends are identified and placed in a broader 'meta'-perspective of a three layered framework, whereby different layers relate to trends of varying inertia (or duration). This multi-layered approach results in a sharper view of the future, which narrows down the ‘plausible’ future space. The second step concerns a new approach in which trend based narratives are used to identify threats and opportunities for the port. The insights from the three layered trend analysis are translated into sixteen well-structured storylines or ‘narratives’, that take the strengths and weaknesses of the port of Rotterdam as a starting point and thus address threats and opportunities specific to the port. The narratives indicate which activities are likely to claim scarce space in the port over the next two decades. They help to form ideas about a future-proof clustering of activities, the required space in the port, as well as the required infrastructure and utilities. The third step concerns creating a spatial development strategy based on the insights provided by the narratives.