Concentrated Solar Power generation: Triple bottom line assessment in Europe and China 2020-2050

Abstract

Concentrated Solar Power is one of the renewable energy technologies with the potential for satisfying the future energy demand in a sustainable way, mitigating climate change and reducing the current dependence on fossil fuels. Regarding the deployment of this technology, China and Europe are two regions playing a forefront role in the present and in the predicted future. In this study we assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of the predicted expansion of Concentrated Solar Power generation. Using an Input-Output model, both the direct effects of these installations and their influence in other industries upstream are considered. In addition, this work studies the experience curve of this technology. It suggests a learning rate equal to 16%. This information is combined with the predicted cumulative installed capacity of concentrated solar power and other energy technologies from scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency and the National Development and Reform Commission. The results show how the development of this technology under different scenarios affects its performance assessing its potential as an alternative to produce electricity in the future. It is found that CSP employment intensity amounts to 2.28 jobs/GWh in Europe and 4.23 jobs/GWh in China. These CSP employment intensities are higher than other low carbon technologies intensities. In addition, this technology already presents lower carbon emissions than fossil fuels and it has the potential of reducing the gap with other low carbon technologies. It presents a carbon intensity of 99.76 gCO2eq/kWh in Europe and 129.65 gCO2eq/kWh in China. These values could further be reduced to 31.10 gCO2eq/kWh in Europe and 40.42 gCO2eq/kWh in China by 2050. This work stresses the importance of an integrated approach that considers environmental and socio-economic aspects when evaluating an energy technology and may provide important information about the potential role of CSP in the energy transition. In addition, these results can be used to emphasize the importance of investing on renewable energy technologies to gain experience, since the knowledge obtained during their deployment can be expected to improve their performance.