Assessing systemic and wider impacts of cooperative, connected and automated mobility

Abstract

New technologies in the transport sector promise to bring about certain benefits, for example related to mobility or safety, but are also expected to cause negative side effects which are in conflict with strategic city objectives. These might be mitigated by appropriate policy interventions that are designed carefully and timely. The Horizon 2020 research project LEVITATE has investigated multiple impacts of connected and automated transport systems, using an integrated multi-method approach, ranging from microscopic and mesoscopic simulations to system dynamics and Delphi panels. In particular, the system dynamics model described in this paper served to assess several systemic and wider impacts that were found difficult or even impossible to assess with the other methods. The main parts of the model are a population sub-model, a simplified traffic demand model distinguishing between three modes of transport, and a model for the use of public space. In order to calibrate the model and get results that are consistent with those of other methods, the input and output data of those simulations have also been incorporated into the system dynamics model. By means of selected example impact variables – modal split, demand for parking space and average commuting distance – the obtained effect of increasing automation as well as of several policy interventions is demonstrated.