Defining the Offshore Wind Support Vessel Market and Simulating Vessel Demand in 2030

Forecasting offshore wind support vessel demand by defining the market drivers and using a factor model and Monte Carlo simulation

Master thesis (2023)

Authors

F.E.W. van Heurn Mechanical Engineering

Contributors

E.B.H.J. van Hassel Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (mentor)
J.F.J. Pruyn Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (graduation committee member)
M. Calvache Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (graduation committee member)
Faculty
Mechanical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering
Copyright: © 2023 Ferdinand van Heurn
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Published Date

27-09-2023

Language

English

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Faculty

Mechanical Engineering

Abstract

With the energy transition taking up speed and strong decarbonisation ambitions offshore wind is becoming a major source of green electricity. European countries are among the leading drivers of the offshore wind expansion on both the wind turbine as well as the vessels side. It is expected that until 2030 170 GW of capacity can be installed, equalling 16000 wind turbines. The wind turbines are serviced using either small vessels or commissioning and service operation vessels (C/SOVs) when parks are larger and in more challenging conditions further away from shore. The C/SOV market is still in development and it is not known how many of these vessels are needed to serve the European offshore wind industry in 2030. It is further unknown until now which factors influence the need for these vessels as both market dynamics as well as operations have not been researched until now.
This research first defines the quantifiable factors influencing the need for C/SOVs in offshore wind parks. These are the park parameters such as the distance to shore and the number of turbines in the park. These data are used in a factor model and Monte Carlo simulation to make an assumption on the required number of vessels. The results are then compared against qualitative factors influencing the need for C/SOVs indirectly.
Out of a high and a low case, the low case was shown to be the most likely fit for the research results. It showed that to serve the offshore wind market in 2030 between 122 and 138 vessels are needed, which is 12 to 28 more than currently are active or on order.
Considering the fact that the industry needs to adapt to a new market, it is crucial to know which factors drive that market and how they influence it. This project allows for researchers to dive further into these factors and research them in more detail. Further the research can assist industry players in their investment decisions and yards can accordingly plan capacity.

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