On the spot and map

Interactive model-based policy support under deep uncertainty

Book chapter (2018)

Authors

E. Pruyt Policy Analysis -

T. Islam Policy Analysis -

Thomas Arzt

Research Group

Policy Analysis () (TU Delft)

Adaptive sampling Exploratory modelling System dynamics Geospatial visualization

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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:219b6424-6c0d-4c52-a63d-805a113491de

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Published Date

2018

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Research Group

Policy Analysis

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and demonstrate the use of ‘on the spot’ and ‘on the map’ scenario exploration and policy-support in workshop settings. First we justify the need for exploratory model-based policy workshops. Then we present some methods and techniques needed for these workshops. Special attention is paid to new techniques we believe are crucially needed for this kind of interactive workshop if time is of the essence, namely (1) techniques to quickly generate small but diverse ensembles of alternative scenarios, and (2) techniques to visualize whole-system dynamics on maps by means of geospatial animations. We subsequently describe a workshop related to the 2015–2016 European refugee crisis for which this approach and these techniques were developed and used. Finally, we discuss shortcomings and improvements to deal with these shortcomings and conclude.