Roadmaps to a hydrogen future in the Netherlands by 2050

Abstract

The Netherlands aims to reduce GHG emissions by 95% by 2050 compared to 1990. Hydrogen is seen as a potential energy carrier in the Netherlands by 2050. To what extent hydrogen will be implemented is unknown, because many applications are possible. Hydrogen shows potential for (1) carbon free feedstock for process industry, (2) carbon free energy carrier of high temperature heat in process industry, (3) energy storage and transport capacity to enable renewables, (4) transport, and (5) built environment. The presence of a natural gas grid is a driver for implementation of hydrogen. This research aims to provide concrete roadmaps for hydrogen futures based on earlier studies, to explore the possibilities for hydrogen development. For this study, no new visions are created with workshops, but existing studies are compared and the key takeaways provide the input for visions. To develop actual roadmaps, a backcasting study has been conducted. Backcasting studies normally do not have prior visions. However, in this study backcasting has been implemented to explore concrete changes and actions that are necessary for development of hydrogen to fulfil the visions that resulted from the existing studies. The results of the backcasting analysis are placed in time to form a roadmap for hydrogen visions. Key actors and policy measures are determined to realize the visions. The following results and conclusion can be made. First, hydrogen plays a role in industrial clusters in the Netherlands. Potential for future hydrogen markets strongly depends on the further development of the energy system and alternatives in the different sectors. Electrolysis and SMR with CCS to some extent are production methods to make hydrogen production cleaner. Depending on new markets, more stakeholders will become involved in the current hydrogen system. Based on existing visions and scenarios, three visions have been constructed. The constructed visions are based on hydrogen as secondary energy carrier and hydrogen as primary energy carrier. Often hydrogen is compared to electricity. Vision 1: All electric. Vision 1 describes a system where electricity is used as the primary energy source. Hydrogen plays an important role in flexibility of the energy system. Electrolysis has to be scaled to provide flexibility. Vision 2: One integrated system. Vision 2 describes a system where hydrogen and electricity are integrated. Hydrogen is implemented in built environment, industry for high temperature heating, heavy vehicle transport and inland navigation. Vision 3: Go hydrogen. Vision 3 describes a system where hydrogen is implemented to its full potential. Every action is to enable a large hydrogen economy in 2050. For further research, the approach of vision comparison could be further developed. Second, combining models with pathways studies may provide a better insight in the bottlenecks between technical possibilities and realisation of the vision. Third, workshops could be conducted for a similar study to gain more detailed insights on roadmapping approach and to provide more platform between stakeholders.