Model-Based Market Organisation of Emerging Energy Networks

Abstract

Market organisation on energy networks is increasingly complex due to frequent emergence of new markets within and related to energy infrastructure. This research is conducted in cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, and analyses the impacts of role demarcation policies on the development of the electric vehicle charging infrastructure market in the Netherlands by applying Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis. In-depth behaviour based sensitivity analysis and scenario discovery has highlighted the most relevant dynamics on the market development over a period of 20 years. Limiting or restricting market access for network companies has showed to effectively influence market attractiveness positively and price developments negatively, both mainly on the short-term (within the first period of 10 years). The most significant and uncontrollable effects of uncertainties occur mainly on the long-term, granting the decision-maker the opportunity to adjust previous decisions when more accurate predictions can be made concerning the development of a specific market.