Parameter space exploration for the probabilistic damage stability method for dry cargo ships

Abstract

The prediction of the statutory attained subdivision index is a challenging issue for the initial design of ships due to the design freedom offered by a probabilistic damage stability assessment. To this end, optimisation techniques integrated with a parametric model of the internal layout may generate a preliminary subdivision design, fulfilling damage stability regulations and cargo volume requirements. The present study explores using a multi-objective constrained optimisation algorithm coupled with a parametric model of a single hold cargo vessel, first investigating two design goal alternatives and secondly performing a global sensitivity analysis on the design variables for the most promising solution. The adoption, in parallel, of state-of-the-art practices shows the validity of the obtained solutions and the time benefits for designers. Nonetheless, the non-linear nature of probabilistic damage stability does not allow for clearly identifying the most impactful parameters on the attained survivability index.