The market potential of hyperloop

Abstract

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AAS) is the third largest airport in Europe in terms of passenger volumes and has been growing rapidly over the past years. This growth is expected to continue in the future (KiM, 2018). Due to the rapid growth in travel demand, AAS reached the maximum allowed number of flight movements of 500.000 per year in 2018 (Schiphol Group, 2018a). According to an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) carried out by Schiphol Group (2018), growth to 540.000 flight movements per year in the period of 2020-2023 is possible without violating current restrictions on noise nuisance and emissions. This number of 540.000 flight movements per year also represents the maximum number of flights that can be safely handled at AAS without further expansion and will soon be reached as well1 (Schiphol Group, 2018a). In the case of WLO scenario high, more than a quarter of the passenger demand in 2050 cannot be handled at AAS without violating set restrictions (CPB & PBL, 2015). AAS wants to maintain its leading position in the European transport market and wants to deal with the growing passenger demand, while staying within the set restrictions in terms of the number of flight movements per year. In order to deal with the expected increase in travel demand for long-distance travel in the future, AAS is considering alternative ways of transport and aspires to become the multimodal hub of Europe. To realize this, the focus of AAS is on short-haul flight substitution within Europe by HSR or by innovative modes. The hyperloop, initially introduced by Elon Musk (2013), is one of the innovative modes being considered by AAS and the Dutch Government (Ministery of Infrastructure and Water Management, 2020). Hyperloop consists of pods travelling through a tube, propelled by magnetic levitation, while maintaining a partial vacuum in this tube (Musk, 2013). The literature on hyperloop has focused on the different technical aspects and the technical feasibility of hyperloop (Gkoumas & Christou, 2020a, 2020b), others highlight the energy consumption, and some criticize hyperloop for not being feasible, but nobody has examined to what extent HPT can function as substitute for short-haul flights and which role HPT could play in the future of multi-modal transport. The aim of this study is to design the future transport system of hyperloop passenger transport (HPT) in the transport market with air passenger transport (APT), highspeed rail (HSR) and HPT for longdistance travel within Europe and to assess whether or not the passenger demand in WLO scenario high can be met, including the share of passengers that cannot be dealt with by means of APT alone. The methodology this thesis has used is discrete choice modelling (DCM). Trade-offs and mode choice of passengers when choosing between APT, HSR and HPT are analysed in order to assess the impact of different system designs of HPT on the potential of HSR and HPT in the substitution of short-haul flights at AAS. A stated preference (SP) experiment has been carried out in order to collect choice data. The focus of this study is solely on substitution of flights at AAS with both origin and destination in Europe, i.e. OD-substitution, and examines destinations that are located approximately 500 km from AAS. Substitution of transfer passengers, both within Europe and for intercontinental destinations, is disregarded in this study. The second research objective this study seeks to address is a methodological research objective. The aim is to examine the impact of using images in the presentation of unfamiliar alternatives in the introduction of the SP experiment on preferences, attitude and drop-out of respondents. Based on these two research objectives, the following research questions have been defined 1. How could different design scenarios for hyperloop passenger transport influence traveller’s mode choice between, and the transport demand for, air passenger transport, highspeed rail, and hyperloop passenger transport for the future long-distance transport market within Europe at AAS? 2. What is the impact of the way in which HPT is introduced in the stated preference experiment on preferences, attitude and drop-out of respondents?