A Logit Mixture Model Estimating the Heterogeneous Mode Choice Preferences of Shippers Based on Aggregate Data

Abstract

Understanding the modal split in freight transportation is a key factor for the successful implementation of innovations. Mode choice models should then be as representative of reality as possible. The use of disaggregate shipment data can help to achieve it. However, shipment data are often unavailable due to confidentiality issues. As a result, numerous models using only aggregate data have been developed, but their capacity to capture heterogeneity in preferences remains limited. In this paper, we propose a Weighted Logit Mixture model to estimate heterogeneous mode choice preferences of shippers directly from aggregate data. The proposed Weighted Logit Mixture is applied to a case study along the European Rhine-Alpine corridor and allows to estimate the probability distribution of the cost sensitivity among the population. The estimation results show that there exists a substantial variation of the cost sensitivity regarding intermodal transport. The proposed methodology is also compared to a state-of-the-art Weighted Logit model to assess its potential. This reveals that the proposed Weighted Logit Mixture exhibits at least a similar predictive power to the benchmark while achieving a better description of the population’s preferences that enables policy-makers to take better informed decisions and appropriate actions.